TOP 5 NHL FREE AGENTS FOR 2024 — DEFENSEMEN
NHL free agency is closing in, as it begins less than a week from today. Last week, we looked at the top five centers in this year’s free-agent class. Today, we’ll be looking at the top five defensemen. It’s not the strongest year for blueliners, but there is some quality available if you’re looking for top-four upgrades, specifically on the right side.
5. Brett Pesce
It looks like Brett Pesce’s time with the Carolina Hurricanes could be coming to a close and that he will hit free agency on Monday. He’s coming off a so-so season that saw him finish with just 13 points in 70 games. Plus, he missed most of the postseason due to injury.
Pesce’s offensive production doesn’t suggest he’s much of an offensive defenseman. While he isn’t, his offensive impacts have been better than his defensive ones over the last few seasons. Still, his defensive game is quite good, as he excels at defending the rush and killing penalties. He’s also excellent at preventing passes from reaching high-danger areas in his own zone.
Evolving Hockey has Pesce signing for six years and a cap hit of $5.54 million, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that number turns out to be closer to 6×6. Elliotte Friedman mentioned on the June 22 episode of 32 Thoughts that the New Jersey Devils are one of the teams interested in Pesce, but there’ll surely be more since top-four, right-handed defensemen are hard to come by.
4. Nikita Zadorov
Nikita Zadorov had a coming-out party of sorts during the playoffs, but if you’re familiar with his game, he’s been a solid second-pair defender for quite some time. He’s 6-foot-6, 240 pounds and plays a physical game, but his defensive impacts are also excellent.
Zadorov is also a highly underrated puck mover. He can stretch the ice with his passing, but he also does well to skate the puck out of trouble with his underrated skating ability for someone his size. We saw some of that from him in the two rounds of postseason play that the Canucks took part in.
Frank Seravalli has said on multiple episodes of DFO Rundown that Zadorov could get a contract that pays him $6 million annually over six years. For context’s sake, his Evolving Hockey contract projection is three years and a cap hit of $4.015 million. AFP Analytics has him signing for five years and just over $5.2 million annually, and even that may be on the low end. At his size, with his physical play and puck-moving ability, I imagine all 32 NHL GMs would love to have him on their rosters, so expect Zadorov to have plenty of suitors on July 1 if he doesn’t re-up with the Canucks.
3. Chris Tanev
Chris Tanev has long been one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL, and that still holds true today. His even-strength defense was worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 6.8 this season, ranked eighth among all defensemen league-wide. His expected GAR nearly matched that, as his even-strength defense was worth an xGAR of 7.1.
Not only does Tanev defend well, but he’s also an underrated puck-mover. He plays difficult minutes and can be relied upon to shut down most team’s top lines. Like Pesce, he’s a right-handed shot who plays top four minutes, so there will likely be plenty of demand for him on July 1, especially since he has such a sterling reputation.
Evolving Hockey has Tanev signing a two-year deal at a cap hit of $4.15 million, but I would not be shocked if he gets more term and money, given how scarce defensemen of his ilk are. Tanev is 34, so it’s likely his last chance at a significant payday, and I bet some team will pay up for his services.
2. Brandon Montour
Montour missed the start of the 2023-24 season after recovering from offseason surgery, but he still had a solid campaign despite some regression in his counting totals. He finished this season with eight goals and 33 points in 66 games — a 41-point pace over 82 games.
Montour is not the defensive presence that Tanev or even Pesce is, but he is a capable defender. Where his value has developed over the last three years with the Florida Panthers is in his puck-moving ability, specifically in the offensive zone. He does well to set up his teammates for chances and directs plenty of pucks toward the net.
There’s value in the type of player Montour is, but at what cost? Evolving Hockey has him signing a three-year deal at a cap hit of $6.505 million. That cap hit might be a touch high, but the three years make it doable for most teams. Montour might be the ideal fit if you want someone who adds a bit more offensive ability in your top four than Tanev or Pesce.
1. Brady Skjei
Last but not least, there’s Brady Skjei, who should end up being the highest-paid defenseman from this year’s free-agent class. He had a career year with the Hurricanes, totaling 13 goals and 47 points in 80 games. He’s also averaged over 21 minutes of ice time in each of the last three seasons, so that will appeal to teams looking for a top-four defender who can eat minutes.
Skjei is one of the more offensive-minded defensemen available in free agency this offseason. Even in 2022-23, he totaled 18 goals and 38 points in 81 games, so his offensive ability is legit. And with the lack of high-end top-four defensemen with his offensive skill set available this summer, he’s sure to have plenty of suitors on July 1.
Evolving Hockey has Skjei signing a seven-year deal at a cap hit of $7.524 million, which is a hefty price tag. There’s certainly a fair amount of risk in signing the 30-year-old Skjei to a seven-year deal, even with the salary cap ceiling expected to rise to $100 million in the next couple of years. He makes plenty of sense if a contender is willing to take on that risk and hopes they can get productive years in the first half of his contract. But just know that there’ll likely be some risk that comes with signing him.
No Star Defensemen, But There Is Depth
Though it’s not the strongest year for free-agent defensemen, there are still some more than capable players. Even depth additions like Erik Gustafsson, Brenden Dillon, Shayne Gostisbehere and Matt Grzelyck should help shore up a team’s bottom four. So expect there to be plenty of movement in the defense free-agent market on July 1 and beyond.
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Advanced stats from Evolving Hockey
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2024-06-25T16:30:53Z dg43tfdfdgfd