ISLANDERS TRADING PAGEAU IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH RECENT MOVES
The New York Islanders had a surprisingly-eventful opening to free agency compared to previous dull offseasons. After a successful 2024 NHL Entry Draft, the team signed Anthony Duclair to a four-year, $14 million contract and Mike Reilly to a team-friendly one-year, $1.25 million contract. In addition to the Islanders’ moves, several shocking decisions by teams across the league could potentially pave the way for the Islanders to part with their 2020 Trade Deadline acquisition, Jean-Gabriel Pageau.
Alex Wennberg’s Shocking Contract
From Jake Guentzel to Sam Reinhart, July 1 had non-stop action throughout the entire day. Some trades and signings sent franchise icons to new clubs, but one deal that flew under the radar was the San Jose Sharks signing of Alex Wennberg to a two-year, $10 million contract. The soon-to-be 30-year-old center had 10 goals and 30 points in 79 regular season games split between the Sharks and New York Rangers last season. He had a goal and an assist in 16 playoff games.
Wennberg’s contract shocked the hockey world as he is not widely viewed as a player worth $5 million annually. While the Sharks needed to spend money to reach the salary cap floor, it is hard to imagine there were not better ways to do so, such as signing a veteran to an overpriced one-year contract like the Chicago Blackhawks did with Alec Martinez.
Wennberg is a two-way center who typically records north of 10 goals and 20 assists per season when healthy. However, he is a relatively average two-way center, failing to finish with a 50-plus expected goals percentage for each of the past six seasons, according to MoneyPuck. While advanced stats cannot quantity an entire player’s essence, there is not much data to support he is worth $5 million annually.
Wennberg has never had a season above a 50% faceoff winner, finishing most seasons around his career-average 46.2% success rate. This is all not to knock on Wennberg’s ability, but rather to showcase a desire for two-way centers league-wide, even underwhelming ones.
Blues Get Active
The St. Louis Blues also got in on the action, acquiring Radek Faksa from the Dallas Stars for future considerations and receiving a third-round pick to take on Mathieu Joseph’s contract. Unlike Wennberg, Faksa is an above-average defender, but he still carries a hefty contract of $3.25 million. Joseph has an average defensive presence but brings a bit more offense. He scored 11 goals and 35 points in 72 games last season, smashing his previous career-high of 26 points.
The Blues are in a unique situation as they transition to their young core, so bringing in these two forwards will help the team develop. However, they took on both objectively poor-value contracts and only received draft compensation from one of the teams, potentially paving the way for the Islanders to shed one of their bad contracts without breaking the bank.
What This Means for the Islanders
While the Islanders were active to start free agency, they have been quiet since, and now is not the time for general manager Lou Lamoriello to put down the phone. Many teams missed out on free-agent targets and made moves to address certain needs, evident in the Blues’ and Sharks’ recent moves, and the Islanders need to capitalize.
Realistically, the Islanders have just two expensive contracts that could be moved: Pageau and Anders Lee (although Lee seems very unlikely due to his expensive salary and captain status.) However, moving Pageau makes a lot of sense and there should be plenty of teams with interest. Presumably, the Sharks would have had interest before the Wennberg signing, given Pageau is a better skater, defender, penalty killer, and faceoff taker than Wennberg while owning an identical contract.
Teams like the Anaheim Ducks, Utah Hockey Club, Buffalo Sabres, and Montreal Canadiens could have interest in Pageau as they, just like San Jose, are undergoing rebuilds and are looking to add NHL veterans to help the roster. All three teams have more than $20 million in salary cap space and need to reach the cap floor.
Considering Faksa and Wennberg were not viewed as negative-value assets, it is hard to imagine Pageau would be, despite what Islanders fans may have grown to believe in recent months. However, on the off chance he does have negative value, the Islanders have the assets to make a deal work. They could add 24-year-old Oliver Wahlstrom — who is likely on his way to a new club this offseason — or one of their many picks owned in future drafts.
Size in the NHL
One important factor in a potential Pageau trade that should be mentioned is size. Wennberg is 6-foot-2 and 190 pounds while Pageau is just 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds. Seen no better than in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final and 2024 Entry Draft where size played a major factor in decision-making and success, the league believes size equals success. If this is true, then there would be reason to believe Pageau would be less appealing for trade-suitors, but that is not the case.
While 5-foot-11 is not short, it is on the shorter side of the NHL. However, size has never been an issue for Pageau. He is not afraid to throw the body around, totaling 170 or more hits across each of the past three seasons. In the playoffs, Pageau dominates, having 144 hits in 41 games during the Islanders’ deep 2020 and 2021 playoff runs. He had 11 goals and 24 points in those games. While Pageau does not dominate the scoresheet, his resume and profile are very appealing to NHL teams looking to prepare their young rosters for the playoffs.
With so much time remaining this offseason, plenty of significant moves are yet to be made. Lamoriello has historically stayed away from major offseason decisions during his tenure with the Islanders, but that will need to change if he believes this roster is not where it needs to be. Pageau is likely the first player who could be moved.
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2024-07-04T13:05:50Z dg43tfdfdgfd