CAN THE OILERS WIN WITH FOUR SIGNIFICANT CAP HITS ON THEIR ROSTER?
Leon Draisaitl signed an eight-year, $14m AAV contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers this morning. This isn’t much of a surprise. Draisaitl is the second-highest scorer over the past nine season with 841 points in 682 games (1.23 points/game). Only his teammate, Connor McDavid, has produced more points with 982 in 645 games (1.52 points/game).
In the past five seasons, Draisaitl has averaged 1.46 points/game scoring 538 points in 368 games, which again was second most behind McDavid’s 610 points (1.70 pts/game). Those two have been incredibly productive and I don’t see any reason that will change in the immediate future.
The Oilers have had the most dangerous duo in the NHL for the last nine seasons, and with Draisaitl now under contract for nine more seasons, Oilersnation should be excited. I’ve written for months I expected Draisaitl to sign between $13m-$14m. That wasn’t a bold prediction. I think anyone paying attention knew he had earned a big raise based on his recent production, and when you add that he and McDavid love playing together, this extension was always a foregone conclusion for me.
I expect McDavid to sign an extension next summer that will keep him in Edmonton long term as well. If you spent this summer fretting about Draisaitl, hopefully you don’t waste energy doing the same with McDavid. He will sign an extension. Guaranteed.
The next contract discussion will involve Evan Bouchard. Bouchard just finished his third full NHL season. He had an amazing season producing 18-64-82 points in 82 regular season games, and then had an even better playoffs. He set an NHL record for most assists by a defender in a playoff year with 26, breaking Paul Coffey’s record of 25 in 1985. Bouchard finished with 32 points in the post-season while logging 25:01/game in ice time.
Bouchard will turn 25 in October. He is just entering his prime and he’s emerging as a top tier defenceman. The most promising aspect of Bouchard’s development is how well he has performed the past two playoffs. He has shown an ability to elevate his game when it matters most, just like Draisaitl and McDavid. And like them, Bouchard needs a new contract.
CRUNCHING THE CAP…
Oilers fans should be celebrating Draisaitl’s extension. I know some of you are, but before the ink dried on his deal, I’ve noticed many immediately turning their focus to the salary cap and discussing whether the Oilers can win with Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard and Darnell Nurse all carrying large cap hits. It is a valid discussion.
For this season their combined cap hits total $33.8m, which equates to 38.4% of the salary cap — a very reasonable number. Here is how all 32 teams rank with their four highest AAVs.
This season there are no issue with their salaries in regard to allocating too much salary to four players.
Next season, Draisaitl, McDavid and Nurse will be a combined $36m. If Bouchard signs for $10m they’d be at $46m which would be 50% of a $92m salary cap. The salary cap jumped up $4.5m this year, so I went with a cautious projection of $4m. If it is more, then their % of the cap will be lower.
McDavid’s new deal will begin in 2026-27. Let’s say he signs for $16m, which would push the four salaries to $49.5m. And if the salary cap continues to go up by $4m/year it will be $96m, which would have the Oilers’ top four salaries eating up 51.5% of the cap. It is a big number, but does it mean the Oilers can’t win?
The 2024 Florida Panthers won the Cup and their four highest AAVs taking up 44.3% of the cap.
In 2023 Vegas won with 41.2% of their cap going to their top four players.
Colorado won in 2022 with 38.7% of their cap allocated to four players.
Tampa Bay won in 2021 with 43.4% of the cap going to four players.
This season the Oilers are in a fantastic position, cap wise, to win, but it is valid to be concerned about the future. I should also point out that teams like Tampa and Vegas had their fifth-ninth players making good money as well. Zach Hyman has given the Oilers unbelievable value at $5.5m the past few seasons and his next two or three years he should still be an above-value contract. I understand if someone argues using only four players isn’t the perfect example. I used four, because of how relevant it is to the Oilers’ salary cap.
The challenge for GM Stan Bowman will be finding players on good value contacts. I’d argue the Oilers have two years before the real cap crunch begins.
McDavid, along with Stuart Skinner, Mattias Ekholm, Evander Kane, Viktor Arvidsson and Adam Henrique, will have their contracts expire on June 30th, 2026. McDavid will get a raise on his next deal and Skinner will get a big boost on his current $2.6m deal. Ekholm will be 36 when his $6m AAV deal ends. Kane, Arvidsson and Henrique remaining in Edmonton afterwards will depend heavily on how they play the next two seasons. And if they do remain, their cap hits would be lower.
The Oilers will need Matt Savoie, Max Wanner and other young players to develop so they can give the Oilers a few years of “value contracts.”
In the summer of 2026, Nurse will have four years remaining on his deal, but in the final three years of his deal his No-Move Clause becomes a limited No-Move with him submitting a 10-team no-trade list. Depending on how things go the next two seasons, he might want a change, or the Oilers might. Or maybe both will be happy with the situation.
As mentioned, this year they are fine, while next year will be a bit more of a cap crunch, but the real challenge will occur in the 2026-27 season. A lot can change in the next 24 months — injuries, trades, a reduction or an increase in a player’s production.
We’d all agree McDavid will get a well-deserved raise. Honestly it could be $18m and I doubt anyone would complain. He is that good, and when you look at the truly elite athletes in other sports, none of them have really slowed down in their early-to-mid 30s lately. The advancements in training, nutrition and overall understanding of how to maximize their talents has allowed the true superstars of sports to maintain their peak performances longer than ever before.
It will take many years, if ever, for McDavid not to be considered a value contract. The advantage Edmonton has with McDavid being among their top-four players is how well he performs. Some might have a down year. He hasn’t had one. We have to account for that when looking at the % of the top four salaries on a team.
I believe the Oilers will be a Cup contender for at least the next five to seven seasons. They won’t win every year (thanks Captain Obvious), but they will be a contender. How highly ranked of a contender will depend on the trades and signings Bowman makes leading up to, and during, the summer of 2026.
You will go crazy worrying about it every day, but I understand why passionate Oilers fans will think about it. I just recommend you spend as much time enjoying the greatness of McDavid and Draisaitl as you do focusing on their potential salary cap crunch.
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2024-09-03T19:45:56Z dg43tfdfdgfd