BREAKING DOWN THE MAPLE LEAFS’ TOP 20 PROSPECTS INTO TIERS
Over the last month, the TLN team has counted down the top 20 prospects in the Maple Leafs organization with detailed profiles of each player. The Leafs’ system may not boast a ton of high-end prospects who project as stars at the next level, but for a team that has been looking to bolster their chances by trading draft picks year after year, Toronto’s scouting staff has done well to keep the pipeline well-stocked with potential NHL contributors.
Ranking prospects is an inexact science – particularly when it is a collaborative effort like the TLN list is each summer – and things like upside, NHL likelihood, and each player’s developmental timeline are all taken into account. Some evaluators may weigh those factors differently than others, and some may weigh them differently from one player to the next, depending on the players’ skill set and their overarching projection. For example, one evaluator could be less concerned with Ty Voit’s small stature than they are with Roni Hirvonen’s because Voit’s raw offensive talent is much more apparent. The same evaluator might still rank Hirvonen higher because he possesses more projectable qualities, even if the ceiling isn’t quite as high, while Voit’s overall upside could outweigh projectability concerns for another evaluator. All of that is to say that two players could be ranked quite similarly despite having very different projections for what they might ultimately become, and vice versa.
With that in mind, this will be a bit of a different take on the TLN prospect rankings, placing each of the prospects from our top 20 into tiers. There is bound to be some crossover with that list, but these tiers won’t be an exact carbon copy of the rankings broken up into groups so much as an exercise in categorizing each player’s current NHL projection.
1. Impact player (High probability)
Outside of a handful of players in any given year, there are no sure things when it comes to prospects, but Easton Cowan is the closest thing the Leafs have in their system. His steady upward trajectory, headlined by a strong showing in his first NHL camp and a phenomenal year in the OHL, put him in a class all his own amongst Leafs prospects as a player the organization can reasonably expect to play a prominent role for the club in the near future.
Cowan has the potential to be a dynamic offensive presence, but he also plays a tenacious, two-way game that will make him a versatile piece for any NHL lineup. Even if he doesn’t reach his ceiling, he should have a long NHL career as a middle-six forward who can provide a little bit of everything.
2. Complementary player (High probability)
Fraser Minten (#2), Ben Danford (#4), Topi Niemelä (#5), Alex Steeves (#10)
A pair of recent high picks in Fraser Minten and Ben Danford headline this group, and they also represent the greatest potential to grow into more than just league-average depth pieces. Minten has already played NHL games and will be in contention to make the team out of camp once again this season, with his well-rounded and mature style of play giving him a high floor as a bottom-six contributor. He may never grow into an offensive driver capable of playing consistent top-six minutes, but he has enough skill and is still young enough to become a quality source of secondary scoring who can handle difficult defensive matchups.
He plays a different position, but Danford shares some similarities with Minten. He has an advanced understanding of the defensive side of the game for such a young player, good size and physicality, and enough flashes of offensive skill to believe there is still room for growth. On his current trajectory, Danford’s defensive game, skating, and ability to make a breakout pass give him a relatively safe floor as a bottom-pairing defender at the NHL level, and continued improvements to his offensive game could take him to another level.
Niemelä is already a solid two-way defender with an impressive rookie season in the AHL under his belt, and he could probably handle NHL minutes in a pinch. Whether he gets an opportunity in Toronto or eventually ends up elsewhere, he’s tracking as an NHL regular who can contribute at both ends of the ice.
Steeves is the outlier in this group because of his age and lack of developmental runway, but it’s fair to say he has proven himself as a scorer at the AHL level and likely would have been given a greater opportunity to stick in the NHL by now with a different club. He hasn’t looked out of place in a depth role during his brief stints with the Leafs, and his straight-line style of play fits what teams are looking for in fourth line forwards. He’ll be in tough to earn a spot with the Leafs out of camp again this season and could potentially be lost on the waiver wire to a rebuilding team that can provide him with NHL minutes.
3. Impact player (Low probability)
Dennis Hildeby (#3), Nikita Grebyonkin (#6), Noah Chadwick (#7), Artur Akhtyamov (#9), Ty Voit (#18)
The players in this group don’t offer the same level of certainty as the ones above, and they are more likely to become complementary pieces if they reach the NHL, but they also represent some level of upside that gives them room to grow into more impactful players down the road.
Hildeby is coming off of a strong rookie season in the AHL, and it looks like he will almost certainly play NHL games at some point. Goaltending is inherently volatile, making it even more difficult to project goalie prospects than skaters, but Hildeby’s size and continued upward trajectory give him intriguing upside as a potential NHL starter.
Grebyonkin has already proven himself in one of the best leagues in the world, winning KHL Rookie of the Year in 2022-23 before playing a prominent role on the Gagarin Cup champions this past season. He isn’t far off of pushing for NHL minutes in a depth role, but his blend of skill and bite could eventually make him a good fit as the third-best player on a first or second line if everything clicks.
The biggest riser from last summer’s rankings, Chadwick’s size and offensive ability should provide him with plenty of opportunities at the pro level. He broke out in a big way for Lethbridge a season ago, and it isn’t difficult to envision him as an offensive driver from the back end if he can continue to round out his game.
Akhtyamov will be looking to replicate what Hildeby did when he embarks on his rookie campaign in the AHL this fall. He has excelled at every level in Russia, and while he doesn’t represent the same level of NHL certainty that Hildeby does at this stage, he certainly has the potential to get there.
Voit is the exception in this tier as more of a boom-or-bust type of prospect, as indicated by his ranking in our top 20. His overall projection to the NHL is far less certain because of his size and unexceptional defensive game, but if he does make it, he has the offensive vision and puck skills to be a top-six playmaking winger.
4. Complementary player (Low probability)
Ryan Tverberg (#8), Nick Moldenhauer (#11), Roni Hirvonen (#12), Jacob Quillan (#15), Miroslav Holinka (#17), Nick Abruzzese (#19)
There is a case to be made for Tverberg, Moldenhauer, and perhaps even Hirvonen to be included in the second group alongside Steeves, but none of them are quite as far along in their development just yet.
Tverberg’s game has some offensive punch, with his tenacity and up-tempo style of play projecting well to an NHL fourth line, but that’s probably his ceiling. Moldenhauer might have a bit more offensive potential, and his ability to play through contact should translate to the pro level, but it’s difficult to be certain about his NHL projection at this point. Hirvonen plays an intelligent two-way game, has some translatable scoring ability, and plays a tenacious style that could make him a fit in an NHL top-nine, but he doesn’t have great size or foot speed, and that could limit his opportunities.
Quillan nearly landed in the “long shot” category, but he had an impressive college career, and he plays a reliable two-way game with some dual-threat offensive ability from the middle of the ice. Still just 22 years of age and heading into his first full season of pro hockey, he could eventually become a viable fourth-line centre option in the NHL. Holinka is younger and even less proven than Quillan, but shares many of the same attributes, and he made a strong impression in his first development camp earlier this summer.
Abruzzese and Steeves are at similar points in their careers, and Abruzzese might have more pure offensive talent, but his game isn’t quite as well-rounded as Steeves’, and his skating is still lagging behind a bit. He isn’t as likely to be afforded depth opportunities because he needs to be deployed with other skilled players to be effective. Abruzzese still has a chance to break through, but the clock is ticking, and his opportunity might have to come with a different team.
5. Long shot
Cade Webber (#13), Mikko Kokkonen (#14), William Villeneuve (#16), Vyacheslav Peksa (#20)
The Leafs identified Webber as a trade target and he practiced with the big club as a black ace during the playoffs last season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s knocking on the door to the NHL just yet. It’s worth noting that he remained with the Leafs after turning pro because he was ineligible to be assigned to the AHL, which is where he is likely to begin his pro career this season. Webber is a big body who knows what he is, and that’s a shutdown defender. There is practically zero offence in his arsenal, and he isn’t overly physical for a player of his stature, so he will have to continue to add dimensions to his game to become a full-time NHLer.
Kokkonen is similar to Webber in terms of being a defence-first player but doesn’t have the same size and raw physical tools to fall back on. He has at least shown flashes of puck-moving ability at the pro level, and he will probably play some NHL games throughout his career, but he doesn’t have any standout traits that make him a surefire NHLer.
Villeneuve was drafted on the strength of his offensive game, and it has taken a while for his mobility and defensive reads to catch up, but he has shown enough improvement in his first couple of seasons with the Marlies to keep him on the prospect radar. He, too, will probably have a cup of coffee in the NHL at some point, whether it’s in Toronto or elsewhere, but he is tracking as more of an AHL tweener than a regular NHLer.
Peksa put up solid numbers in the MHL and VHL back in Russia, but he struggled mightily during his first season in North America, playing in the ECHL. With Hildeby and Akhtyamov ahead of him on the depth chart, opportunities could be difficult to come by for Peksa in the next couple of seasons, but his body of work in Russia is enough to believe there’s still a sliver of NHL potential in there somewhere.
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